Fantasy Football Rankings Week 14: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | Elijah Moore, Gabe Davis and more

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By journalsofus.com


You need to make the fantasy football playoffs! The Week 14 fantasy football rankings will obviously help, but we also have game previews, sleepers and advice. Plus, we wrap it up with more fun ranks! Talking the best TV/show intros ever.

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Week 14 Waivers | Week 14 SOS Ranks
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WEEK 14 FANTASY FOOTBALL PREVIEWS

** BYES: ARI, WSH **

NOTE: ALL of the stats are SINCE WEEK 7 — unless noted. That’s because it’s good to look at recent performance versus year-long with defenses, etc., as in-season adjustments can change things.

Acronyms

  • RBTouch% — RB touch percentage — percent of team total RB touches that player had
  • TmTGT% — Team target percentage — percent of team total targets going to that player
  • TGT% — Percentage of the time a player is targeted when running routes
  • TmAirYD% — Team Air Yard percentage — percent of team total air yards going to that player
  • YPRR — Yards per Route Run — rather valuable indicator
  • APA — Adjust Points Allowed (tables link above)
  • Pts Mgn/G — Points per game more or less than opponent
  • Comb PPG — Game total points/combined PPG

Patriots at Steelers, TNF

  • If Demario Douglas returns, he’s in play as a volume WR3, but if he doesn’t DeVante Parker is a risk/reward WR4 against these Steelers.
  • No wide receiver has topped 84 yards against the Steelers since Week 7 (Puka Nacua) — that list includes JAX, TEN, GB, CLE, CIN, ARI.
  • The Patriots have run the ball at least 17 times with their running backs in all but one game (15 vs WSH), and the Steelers are allowing the most missed tackles per attempt (0.26).
  • Najee Harris hit the injury report, and if he’s out, Jaylen Warren would be pushing the Top 15 at running back.

Buccaneers at Falcons, 1 p.m.

  • Chris Godwin is one of three receivers (Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo) with 20+ TmTGT% and zero receiving touchdowns.
  • Baker Mayfield is the only quarterback to attempt more than 38 passes (42) and complete more than 24 (27) against the Falcons.
  • The Buccaneers hadn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all year until Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard ran in two, each, the last two games.

Lions at Bears, 1 p.m.

  • The Bears haven’t allowed more than 76 rushing yards to a running back this year (David Montgomery) and have the highest Stuff% (52.1).
  • Due to injuries and use, D’Onta Foreman has been the best back five times, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson three times each, and Darrynton Evans once. I’d avoid all until we see the Bears’ plans.
  • Outside of Mike Evans (6-171-1, 23.1 points in Week 2), no wide receiver has more than 77 receiving yards or 14.6 points against the Bears this year.

Colts at Bengals, 1 p.m.

  • Zack Moss has handled 91.4% of the rushes and 89.4 RBTouch% in games without Jonathan Taylor.
  • In his two starts, Jake Browning would rank first in Comp% (81.0 — Brock Purdy second at 70.2), second in YD/ATT (9.2 — Tua Tagovailoa 8.6), and sixth in FPPG (19.1).
  • Only Kenny Pickett has failed to score at least 18.3 points against the Bengals since their bye (SF, BUF, HOU, BAL, PIT, JAX).

Jaguars at Browns, 1 p.m.

  • Amari Cooper is at risk of missing Week 14. Cooper would be a dicey WR3 even if he plays, and without him, Elijah Moore is a strong WR3 given the connection with Joe Flacco.
  • Zay Jones had the same TmTGT% as Calvin Ridley after Christian Kirk left the game (21.1) with Parker Washington at 15.8%.
  • C.J. Beathard has a career 59.5 Comp%, 11.6 YD/Comp, 7.2 AirYD/ATT and 1.3 TD/INT compared to 64.2, 10.6, 7.6 and 1.6 for Trevor Lawrence.

Panthers at Saints, 1 p.m.

  • If Rashid Shaheed returns, he’s a boom/bust WR4, as the Panthers’ pass defense isn’t terrible. If Shaheed stays sidelined, it’s tough to use any wideout besides Chris Olave.
  • It was only Hubbard’s third double-digit score, but since Week 6, he’s T-RB20 in FPPG (11.9), 15th in TmRushATT% (65.9) and 14th in RBTouch% (64.6).
  • Alvin Kamara continues to rank first in targets, receptions and receiving yards for running backs and has just one game without 13.9+ points since his return (9.0 in Week 9 vs. CHI).

Texans at Jets, 1 p.m.

  • From Weeks 8-10, Noah Brown had just 19 targets (26th) but T-11 in receptions (16), second in yards (382) and first in YD/TGT (20.1).
  • Only six wideouts have double-digits versus the Jets, and the Dolphins are the only team to have two do it in the same game.
  • Breece Hall had his lowest RBTouch% in Week 13 (65.5) since Week 4, and despite being Top 10 in RBTouch% since Week 8, he’s just 31st in FPPG (9.7).

Rams at Ravens, 1 p.m.

  • Puka Nacua sounds as if he’ll play, but given the matchup, he and Cooper Kupp are riskier WR2/3s than usual. If Nacua is out, Kupp would be hard to sit, and Tutu Atwell becomes a decent flier.
  • Including the game he got hurt, Kyren Williams is averaging 16.8 carries, 5.1 YPC, and 19.8 FPPG, which includes 35-22-190-3 receiving.
  • The only running back to reach double-digits against the Ravens without a touchdown is Jerome Ford (17-107-0 and 1-1-2-0 for 10.9).

Vikings at Raiders, 4 p.m.

  • Jordan Addison saw a higher TmTGT% (22.7 to 13.8) with Justin Jefferson out, but he averaged 10.0 FPPG, 13.6 YD/REC and 12.0 TD/TGT with Jefferson versus 7.3, 12.3 and 7.0 without (granted, some without Kirk Cousins as well).
  • It does’t matter if it’s Aidan O’Connell or Jimmy Garoppolo — Nnearly all of Davante Adams’ stats are similar, except OFFTGT% is much higher (26.4 to 16.9) with O’connell, as well as his Red Zone and End Zone targets (11 and 4 with Garoppolo with three touchdowns vs. 7 and 0 without him, and the one touchdown coming from outside the Red Zone).
  • In Weeks 10-12, the Vikings scored five touchdowns with Ty Chandler on the field versus one with Alexander Mattison — and they passed 58.7% of the time compared to 47.1%.

Seahawks at 49ers, 4 p.m.

  • Seahawks running backs: 1) If Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet practice in full, both carry risk as RB2/3s given uncertainty, and I’ll put Charbonnet first… 2) Walker limited and Charbonnet in full would put Charbonnet as a Top 20 running back and Walker hard to trust… 3) Walker full and Charbonnet limited reverses those (Walker Top 20, Charbonnet risky).
  • The Seahawks run the third lowest Man Coverage% (11.7). Brandon Aiyuk has 2.83 YPRR, 14.9 AirYD/TGT and 21.6 TmTGT% against Zone and Deebo Samuel 2.93, 6.5 and 17.9. Compared that to 3.84, 13.4 and 25.3 (Aiyuk vs. Man) and 1.36, 8.3 and 12.6 (Samuel vs. Man).
  • Cliffs Notes version: Aiyuk and Samuel both do great against Zone, but Aiyuk destroys Man more than Samuel does.

Bills at Chiefs, 4 p.m.

  • Coming off a loss, Patrick Mahomes is 16-3 with 22.1 FPPG and 48 touchdowns.
  • Over the past two weeks, Rashee Rice is 11th in TmTGT% (30.6) and T-8 in targets (19) with 16-171-1 and 31.1 points (11th).
  • Gabe Davis is tough to predict, but while most of his numbers are similar while facing Man or Zone, his TD/TGT% is 13.6 against Man versus just 6.3 against Zone (career), and the Chiefs run the fifth-highest Man Coverage% (33.1).

Broncos at Chargers, 4 p.m.

  • If Joshua Palmer returns, he’s a difference in this offense and a WR4 with upside and risk, given the first game back and matchup. Without Palmer, you can’t trust Quentin Johnston or Jalen Guyton.
  • The Broncos continue to be much better against the pass with the seventh-toughest PassEPA, while they are mid-pack (17th) for RushEPA.
  • Courtland Sutton has a touchdown in nine of 12 games, failing to score against the Browns, Jets and Commanders — the Washington shutout is the only game that doesn’t make sense.

Eagles at Cowboys, SNF

  • D’Andre Swift is a risk/reward RB2 if he’s good to go, but without him, we’re looking at Kenneth Gainwell as an RB3 and Boston Scott possibly not far behind. In the past, Scott has been the short-yard/goal-line option.
  • The Eagles are allowing 29.1 FPPG to quarterbacks over their last five games with at least two passing touchdowns in each.
  • The all-time high for a quarterback FPPG over a full season is Lamar Jackson’s 27.7, for comparison.

Titans at Dolphins, MNF

  • Over the last six seasons, Derrick Henry averages 21.1 FPPG, 5.9 YD/Touch, 5.8 YPC, 126.8 RushYD with 24 rush TDs (20 games) in December/January, compared to 16.2, 4.8, 4.4, 85.8 and 52 rushing TDs (63 games) in other months.
  • Tyreek Hill has just three games without 102+ receiving yards or 20.3+ points.
  • Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce just had 16-11-105-1 and 6-3-100-1 against the Titans last week, who are also eighth in percent of plays allowed for 20+ yards (9.8).

Packers at Giants, MNF

  • If Christian Watson plays, he’s pushing the WR2 conversation — finally — with Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs as WR3/4s, and if Watson is out, both Reed and Doubs are WR2/3s.
  • The Giants allow the highest 1stRead% for opposing quarterbacks, and only Trevor Lawrence has a higher 1stRead% than Jordan Love (76.4 to 74.2).
  • In games when Christian Watson was out or limited, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs tied for 21.7 1stRead% (Luke Musgrave 16.3).

WEEK 14 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

These are sleepers (DuckTales and Darkwing Duck style — Woo-oo is worthy of the risk in most leagues, and Dangerous is if you need a Hail Mary). They will not mimic my rankings 100%. This is about chasing upside and often carries more risk; put simply, they are upside plays you might consider over a solid floor option.

Woo-oo Worthy

  • QB: Gardner Minshew, IND
  • RB: Keaton Mitchell, BAL; Javonte Williams, DEN
  • WR: Elijah Moore, CLE; Brandin Cooks, DAL
  • TE: Jake Ferguson, DAL

Let’s Get Dangerous

  • QB: Russell Wilson, DEN
  • RB: Chuba Hubbard, CAR; Dameon Pierce, HOU
  • WR: Gabe Davis, BUF; Drake London, ATL
  • TE: Tyler Conklin, NYJ

FUN WITH RANKINGS!

Nicole (my wife) had never seen the Daredevil Netflix series (now on Disney), so we’re watching it together. First, let me remind you it’s one of the best things Marvel has ever done. Second, the amazing intro had me thinking 1) how Westworld stole its theme and, 2) that I should rank the best TV/show intros. I started listing them, but then realized I need two lists — live action and animated — because I can easily list over 30 combined. This week is the live action list; next week, we’ll rank the animated ones.

Best Show Intros

  1. Game of Thrones — Greatest combination of music and graphic design… ever? Side note: the Pirates using it with their lineups was tremendously done.
  2. Friends — I’ll be there for you!
  3. Daredevil — What kicked this all off — the gravitas of the music
  4. Fresh Prince — You’re singing it right now. Kind of a music video.
  5. X-Files — One of the most iconic instrumental songs of all TV history.
  6. Westworld — Even stealing Daredevil’s style, it’s a great one
  7. Sopranos — Even not having watched the entire series, I know how great the intro is.
  8. Golden Girls — One of the most iconic ones of all time (and the wife’s favorite).
  9. Peacemaker — Easily the most insane one on the list.
  10. The Office — You get a sense of every character’s traits just from a quick shot through this fun intro.
  11. Knight Rider — That song, and voice.
  12. MacGyver — These 80s shows had some of the best intro music and clip segments ever (also kinda sounds like Chip N Dale to start).
  13. A-Team — Along the Knight Rider older shows I watched reruns of while home sick, another great one.
  14. Full House — Maybe showing my age a bit, but I can’t think of any other show’s intro that embodies the 90s style than this.
  15. Psych — I know, you know, that you should love this show and how fun the intro is.
  16. The Brady Bunch — Who doesn’t know this song?
  17. Saved by the Bell — “And the ‘larm gives out a warnin’” … in case you never figured out what the hell was being sung.
  18. Airwolf — Knight Rider part two?
  19. Community — Simple. Fun. Just like the paper fortune teller they use for the credits.
  20. Stranger Things — Something about that eerie music keeps me from skipping the intro of only letters moving into place. (Loki too, just like this)

Honorable Mention: Adventures of Pete and Pete; CHiPs — Upbeat version of those 80s midday reruns.

Editors’ note: Yes, we also are assuming Jake has never seen the Dallas. Or Just the 10 of Us. Or In Living Color. Or Get A Life. Or ALF. Or The Munsters. Or…

Jake: Legit forgot about ALF — good call! Oh, and Cheers, but HM because I never watched it. Double oh! Star Trek: TNG for me (way too young for the O.G.)


WEEK 14 FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTIONS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨 These can differ from my rankings, and my ranks are the order I’d start players outside of added context, such as, “Need highest upside, even if risky.” Also, based on 4-point TDs for QB, 6-point rest, and Half-PPR

Projections Download Link


WEEK 14 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS

🚨 HEADS UP 🚨

  • There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to properly work.
  • ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
  • Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

(Photo by Steve Nurenberg/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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