What’s new with the forecast?
- The models continue to fight with strength. of the storm that will form in the Mid-Atlantic and slide south of New England. The US GFS model has a slightly further offshore and weaker low. Meanwhile, the European model represents a closer pass of a stronger low pressure system, but closer passes generally mean more warm air pulled inland from the ocean and more rain than snow near I-95. However, the stronger storm system in that scenario would bring heavier precipitation, which could help cool the lower atmosphere and increase snowfall in some areas.
- Both major weather models now agree on a pronounced transition zone between rain and snow near Interstate 95 from about Washington to south of New York City. Along and east of I-95, more rain than snow is likely. Between 30 and 60 miles northwest, chances of significant snowfall increase.
- Models are converging on the idea of an initial period of snow when the storm begins Saturday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic, primarily west of I-95. It may only last a few hours, but the snow could fall enough to disrupt travel for a while. Thereafter, precipitation may turn to rain at lower elevations.
Schedule and possible totals
Washington may end up on the wet side of the rain-snow line